Ticket sales by the California Lottery are off about 10 percent compared to a year ago, a drop lottery officials are pinning on a bad economy. But California Lottery officials say they don’t think the lagging sales will interfere with efforts to modernize the lottery and revamp it to give more revenue to the state.
For the first four months of the 2008-2009 fiscal year, the California Lottery sold $985 million worth of lottery tickets, down from $1.09 billion for the same period a year ago.
But last year’s Lottery sales were also down from the year before.
The Lottery sold just under $3.1 billion in tickets during the last fiscal year, down
from $3.3 billion in 2006-07 and $3.6 billion during 2005-06.
There is sometimes an idea that gaming is recession-proof, but that isn’t true, said Lottery spokesman Al Lundeen. In fact,
Lottery sales often track the general state of the
economy. Sales hit a peak during the height of the
housing boom three years ago, but stood at only $2.9 billion during the 2003-04 fiscal year.
Lundeen also said a lack of big jackpots so far this
fiscal year has likely reduced sales.
“Most of the decline is in what we call the draw games,
the Mega Millions or Super Lotto Plus, the games that
are driven by the big jackpots,” Lundeen said.
When either game rolls over-that is, one of the bi-weekly drawings passes without a winner, rolling millions
of dollars of losing tickets into the next drawing’s jackpot-it increases interest, he said. Sales particularly
go up when a jackpot tops $50 million. That hasn’t happened very often so far this fiscal year, he said,
and the Lottery also hasn’t seen any of the $300 million jackpots that spur huge short-term sales.
Lottery officials are hoping to use the falling sales
figures to convince voters of the need to change the
rules governing the state lottery. According to the
1984 voter initiative that created the lottery, 34 percent of the proceeds have to go towards education.
This has resulted in lower prize payouts, lower consumer
participation and actually lower payouts to education,
according to lottery director Joan Borucki.
“You have more winners, people feel better about playing,
you get an increase in sales,” Borucki said. “The sooner we’re able to do it the better. If I had my druthers we
would start doing it this month.”
She pointed towards states where a modest increase
in payouts had a multiplier effect on sales. In Florida,
she said, higher payouts from “scratcher” tickets tripled their sales between 2002 and 2006. In New York, higher payouts led to a 250 percent rise is sales between 2000 and 2007-accompanied by a 238 percent increase in revenues to the state.
This past spring, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger floated
the idea of “securitizing” the lottery-essentially, selling it to an outside operator, who
would give a big up-front payoff and further payments down the line. The
Legislative Analysts Office weighed in on the proposal,
saying that the $37 billion upfront payment the Administration predicted
was unlikely to come true. But their report also noted
the lottery was underperforming compared to other states
and said changes in the lottery were worth investigating.
Many agree that securitizing the lottery will not work
without the ability to increase payouts and revenue
going forward. At the Governor’s request, the Assembly Budget Committee put forth
AB 1741, the Lottery Modernization Act. It made several the
necessary changes, and easily reached the two-thirds vote requirement for changing the constitutional
amendment.
But any additional changes-such as actually increasing the payout and securitizing
the lottery-would have to go ahead of voters. Borucki said she
didn’t know of any well-funded opposition that might pop up to block an initiative,
outside of groups critical of gambling in general.
While some education groups have been skeptical of
changes in the lottery in the past, Borucki said they
have so far remained neutral on the securitization
idea.
“Education, in the long run, probably makes out better
as far as funding goes,” she said of the plan.
The lottery is hardly the only gaming operation that’s seen revenues weaken or the only one whose performance
could have an effect on the state’s bottom line.
The growth in tribal gaming revenues have fallen off
steadily, along with other economic indicators, according
to figures from Alan Meister of the Analysis Group,
which tracks tribal gaming. Nationwide, tribal gaming
revenues grew 15 percent in 2005, 10 percent in 2006, five percent in 2007 and less than two percent so far this year.
Just last week, the United Auburn Indian Community
announced they would scale back expansion plans at
their Thunder Valley Casino due to the economic downturn.
Meanwhile, a pair of the biggest tribal casinos in
southern California have had layoffs. In August,
the Pechanga Casino said it would lay off 368 workers, eight percent of it’s workforce, due to the downturn. The Morongo Casino
announced recnetly they would let go of 95 workers.
